- Silent evidence- you can’t determine causality just by studying the successes. You don’t know the traits of the failures- they could be the same as the successes. Failed writers aren't necessarily bad writers.

- The absence of evidence (no evidence of disease) doesn’t mean evidence of absence.

- Recognize the unknown unknowns.

- Mediocristan (finite limits- weight, height, etc.). Extremistan (boundless- income, book sales, retweets).

- The turkey, which is fed every day until thanksgiving, doesn't realize he's getting closer to death.

- When a black swan occurs, people rationalize in hindsight and state that it was inevitable.

- Series of events preceding a particular situation doesn’t imply causality. We give narratives to make sense of events.

- Humans are the victims of an asymmetry in the perception of random events. We attribute our successes to our skills, and our failures to external circumstances outside our control, mainly, to randomness. There is something in us designed to protect our self-esteem.

- The law of iterative expectations. If I expect to expect something at some date in the future, I already expect that something now. Stone Age historical thinker is called to write about the events of the era. If he predicts the wheel, then the wheel already exists as a concept.

- Different conclusions can be drawn from the same data. Every day you’re alive...you could be closer to death or immortality.